The Power of the Interview

Last year around this time, which is basically NFL Draft time, I overheard Cam Newton during an interview on Sportscenter. This interview took place before the draft, but close enough to the draft that the Panthers had all ready came out and said they were taking Newton first overall after his Heisman/NCAA run at Auburn. I can't remember what he said verbatim, or at all really, during this interview, but I can remember thinking to myself, based on this one interview that I happened to overhear while I had the television on, "This guy is going to be good." Based on his play at Auburn, he looked way too much Vince Young than Michael Vick; he was bigger than collegiate defensive lineman for crying out loud. Too many variables suggested that Newton was going to be a flash in the pan style athlete tailor made for the college game. The conventional thinking was, and still is, that running quarterbacks don't make it in the NFL, that NFL linebackers are faster than college defensive backs. Which is true, and even though Newton rushed for over 700 yards and amassed an other-worldy 14 touchdowns as a quarterback, he also threw for a rookie-record of 4,051 and chipped in another 21 touchdowns with his arm. It's easy to point to Newton's stats now, but going back a little over a year ago, nothing of what Newton did on the field protruded into my final evaluation of how I thought he was going to translate into the NFL. It was that one interview that did it for me. Like I said, I can't remember what Newton said, but it was the way that Newton said it. It was the poise and bravado that Newton carried, his demeanor that signaled he was always going to be in control. He had a lot of things along the way happen to him that could have derailed his career, and I thought for sure Auburn was done for when the whole Mississippi State illegal recruitment stories started to surface. But Newton prevailed through that, he prevailed through his critiques heading into the draft, and he further prevailed throughout his first season in the league. I point back to that interview that I was lucky enough to catch as my "I believe" moment. I do my best to be as good as I can when it comes to judging someone's character, and over the years I think I've done a fairly decent job of fine-tuning the tools needed to evaluate someone's character fairly and properly. That Newton interview, as I've pointed out a few times by now, was the reason why I believed Newton was going to be a star. I posted something very similar on my Facebook page, and if I really wanted that self-gratification I'd go searching for it on my timeline. Point is, there is nothing quite like listening to a quarterback talk. Every year around draft time it seems the NFL throws up the Peyton vs Leaf video clips, where Peyton carried himself eminently while his team was in the process of winning 3 games, while Ryan Leaf was flipping out on interviewers in the San Diego lockerrooms. There is no other position in sports quite like quarterback, and if a quarterback can't conjure an aura around himself during a one-on-one interview, how well can that same person control a huddle with 10 other men in a tight spot during an NFL game? Best-case example: Tom Brady instilling a sizeable confidence in his group of guys that features a slot receiver who doubles as a defensive back. Worst-case example: Donovan McNabb throwing up during the Super Bowl. How a quarterback carries himself is just as important as the throwing motion, the arm strength, the pin-point accuracy, all the other intangibles that can be seen on game film. During this past draft when ESPN was replaying the same highlights from the first 3 quarterbacks selected, if you turned your TV to the black and white picture setting and remove jersey colors, you couldn't tell what QB had thrown the ball, mostly cause all of those highlights looked the same, especially when all three of them were playing against ho-hum college defenses and not the Bamas and LSUs of the world day-in and day-out. But now, the fun begins, because now, Luck, Griffin, and Tannehill will be playing against the Bama and LSUs of the world, because every NFL team in the league has a better defense year in and year out than any of the great college Ds ever has had to offer. I was able to catch Luck and Griffin's QB Camps with Jon Gruden specials on the tele. Like anyone else, I was immensely impressed with Luck. I went in with the mindset and intent of trying to pick apart anything I could when I was watching these shows. With Luck, I thought he was a little too happy-go-lucky at the beginning, but as soon as the talk switched to football language, Luck jumped in feet first. Griffin, on the other hand, has always carried himself like he has something to prove. Anytime you hear Griffin talk, he's talking about how hard he has to keep working, how hard he needs to now work, that nothing can be taken for granted or nothing comes easily. Luck really sounds like the next Peyton Manning with how he speaks, football all the time, nothing else. There is nothing outside the field that phases Luck in the slightest, as his mind is always pointed and focused on what takes place inside the lines. Luck could have been drafted first or one-hundred and first and would have came into training camp with the same attitude and demeanor. Griffin sounds like Tom Brady constantly reinforcing the message and idea that he needs practice in order to come as close to perfection as he can, from practice habbits to film study habbits to something almost irrelevant like sleep habbits. Whereas Brady has been able to hark back to the fact that 198 other people were drafted ahead of him and used that as a fiery motivation, Griffin has only needed the number 1 to fuel his fire. That being, that he expects to be the best, but there was someone else drafted ahead of him. You could tell this with how he could never really label himself as the number two pick in the draft, constantly saying that there were two number one picks in this draft, never able to come to terms that he wasn't picked first as in first overall. For reference, Newton has always sounded like the premier businessman, almost a football player in jest, someone's whose brand and image would fit much better in the NBA than the NFL. I had been wary of Griffin's prospects as a professional quarterback up until earlier today, when during NFL Live I caught yet another Griffin interview and tried to analyze it like a ghost hunter searching for any type of sign, overanalyzing the pitch and tone just like a ghost hunter would analyze a creak in the floorboards. All in all, I gave in, and allowed myself to become impressed with how Griffin carried himself. I tried my best play Devil's advocate, to buck the trend of analysts falling in love with a player, because it is amazingly easy to say that the first or second overall pick in a draft is goign to ba amazing, and not so easy to say that the player is going to bust. With JaMarcus Russell and Matt Leinart it was pretty easy, much like it was pretty easy for me with Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger (I always credit my first big faux-football evaluator moment as being Roethlisberg's success in the NFL. Sophomore year of high school I wrote in my journal during creative writing during free-write that I thought the Cardinals should draft Roethlisberger in the draft they drafted Fitzgerald. Two Super Bowl victories in three appearances and I feel very vindicated by how well I can judge talent). The verdict is still out for Tannehill. I have barely heard him speak a word, and I don't think he's going to make it in the NFL. But, time will tell, and I may talk myself into him just by listening to him talk.

The New Free Agency: Individual Agency

July 8th, 2010, around 6ish, I think, might have been 5, I sped home from my job at the airport and got to a TV as quick as I could. Why? Because that was the date LeBron made his infamous Decision. You could also say Chris Bosh to a lesser extent, but it's not like he's the most talented basketball player in the world. Since that day, it reshaped everyone's beliefs in what it means to be a “free agent.” Yes, LeBron wasn't the first big-name superstar to switch teams to a more attractive city, a better market, and better running mates. Shoot, Amare left Phoenix for New York that same summer. But the way that LeBron switched teams, it signaled a new era for free agency in the NBA, an era of individual agency.

Case in point: flash-forward, or fast-forward whichever you prefer, to Carmelo Anthony. It was apparent that Carmelo wanted to go to New York to join Amare. New York, thanks to gutting their cap room in an attempt to get LeBron, had the money to sign Carmelo. Of course, Carmelo could have played out the season with Denver and signed with New York in the summer, but it was also apparent that the NBA would go through a damaging lockout that would change the way player contracts are written up. If Carmelo got traded during the season, he could sign an extension under the old way that basketball superstars got paid. Carmelo had no clue how much money he could lose if he waited around and signed in the off season as a free agent. So, in a way, he held Denver hostage, loosely demanding a trade to New York by way of claiming the Knicks would be the only team he would sign an extension with. Carmelo forced Denver's hand, because everyone knew he was gonna bolt. Denver didn't want to end up like Cleveland either, tensely waiting, hoping, and praying that Carmelo would stay around, only to be spurned at the last second for a more attractive city and a better running mate.

Answer: The first order of business once the locks came off NBA compounds. Question: What is The Chris Paul Trade Alex? To quote Jules Winfield, “Correctomundo!” The Hornets, or more realistically David Stern, obviously monitored the Cleveland/LeBron fiasco and was powerless to the Carmelo/Denver/New York love triangle. Stern, who if you don't know by now runs the Hornets, no matter what anyone says, was in the same exact situation as Denver: young stud who had a year till free agency, or more importantly, individual agency. The rumor mill sounded eerily similar to Carmelo and Denver. “He will only sign an extension for a certain team.” “We want this guy but don't want to gut our roster to get him.” “Once free agency rolls around he's gonna bolt anyway.” New York caved and shipped away a ton of talent to acquire Carmelo, headlined by Timofey Mozgov. Well, maybe not headlined by Mozgov, but New York was so adamant about keeping him around. Say what you want about the Laker trade, but it didn't happen. More importantly, Paul gets shipped from one team and one city to, and stop me when this sounds similar, a more attractive city and a better running mate. New Orleans and the Clippers were then in the same situation as Denver and New York. Well, Paul's gonna bolt in the off season anyway, let's get what we can for him. Well, wait now, let's call this team's bluff and wait it out to get the best deal possible, cause they'll cave eventually. New York caved with Denver. LA caved with New Orleans. It's worked out with Denver so far, and time will only tell how New Orleans did with the trade.

And now, yes, stop me when this sounds familiar, but we have one Dwight Howard. Same situation as Anthony and Paul, only Orlando's thinking is more on par with Cleveland's. For whatever reason, Orlando thinks they can keep him, and Dwight's nice guy persona only pushes that thinking even further. Dwight doesn't want to made out like what LeBron has turned in to: The bad-guy. Dwight will sit back and smile and claim he wants to stay in Orlando, but he wants to go to a winner. Basically Dwight just wants someone to carry the offensive load. Orlando has even copied the Cleveland blueprint for trying to entice the star to stay: Let's actively bring in these guys and make these moves to show Dwight we are serious about building a winner with Dwight at the centerpiece. How did that work out for Cleveland?

Carmelo had his wish list, which was New York. Paul had his wish list that wasn't as evident as Carmelo's, but there were only a few places that Paul would realistically sign an extension with. Same thing with Dwight” Brooklyn, Lakers, and now the Clippers. The Warriors have even floated out potentially trading for Dwight as a rental for the season and hope he likes it in the Bay Area.

What does it all mean? Players understand how the league works. Being a free agent doesn't mean they are free to sign with any team they want. There's a thing called a salary cap. Ever so often, the stars will align perfectly and a team like Miami or New York can throw a season away, gutting their roster and cap space and sign two, three big name guys. That doesn't happen often. Could the Clippers have signed Chris Paul this off season? Maybe, potentially, but they would have made a few little moves to clear up some money. Can the Clippers or Lakers sign Dwight this off season? No chance. Brooklyn appears to be the only team that Dwight would want to go to that has the space to sign him. I haven't perused the potential cap room of teams for this summer lately, but Dwight's choices are limited, much like Carmelo's, much like Paul's.

Teams are rarely made through free agency in sports. The draft and trades are what make teams, because unless you gut your roster for a year, only a few teams realistically have cap space. For whatever reason, players are just now figuring this out. These players are finally realizing that to get what they want, or to put it another way play where they want, they're going to have to spurn some fans and any image they've created. Players know they're going to have to take their own careers into their own hands. Carmelo wanted to play in New York, he put the pressure on Denver to trade him to New York. Paul wanted to go to a “sexy” city, you hear the whispers about him only signing an extension with certain teams. Dwight doesn't want to stay in Orlando, he's adding teams to his “wish list” of desired places to go. LeBron paved the way for all of this. He went out on national television and let it be known he was taking his talents to where he wanted to play and play with who he wanted to play with. If he wanted the best place to win, he would have picked Chicago. If he cared about image he would have stayed with Cleveland. He wanted to play in Miami with Wade and Bosh. So, he signed there because he had the individual agency to do so.

Cleveland also provided a blue print for what happens to teams who get spurned by the star player. It's not like this is the first team that's ever had a star player bolt in free agency, and they won't be the last, but thanks to LeBron and The Decision, it came to hurt Cleveland more than anything. Denver didn't want to become like Cleveland and have Carmelo bolt. New Orleans and Orlando don't want to be like Cleveland and have their stars bolt. Everyone just seemed to feel sad for Cleveland, and it was more pity than anything. You didn't feel that when Shaq left Orlando all those years ago did you? Did you feel it when Amare left Phoenix? But because LeBron made his decision on national television, with everyone powerless as to where he was going to sign, and announced it live on TV, everyone in Cleveland felt like they just got drop kicked in the stomach. People were burning LeBron James' jerseys for crying out loud. As monumental and once-in-a-lifetime type of happening, Denver didn't want that fallout, so they traded their superstar. New Orleans didn't want that fallout, they traded their superstar. As unlikely as that same fallout would have even been for those two cities, they didn't want to be like Cleveland.

This leaves Dwight Howard, and many other high-level players in the last year of their respective contracts. The blueprint has been created for players to play where they want to play. Just create a “wish list,” let your current employer know you will be switching teams regardless, and say “Hey, I'm leaving, but if you want to get something in return, these are places I'd like to get traded to. It's been fun.” Fun indeed, because trades only open the possibility for the rumor mill to really get swirling, a rumor mill that will slowly heat up as more players realize they have a choice to play where they want to.